Journal of Experimental Psychology. In response to reader response that questioned her analysis vos Savant conducted a survey of readers with exactly two children, at least one of which is a boy. The two possible answers share a number of assumptions. From Bayes' Theorem that the probability of two boys, given that one boy was born on a Tuesday is given by:. That is, the problem statement does not say that having a boy is a sufficient condition for Mr. Using Bayes' Theorem , we find. They imagine a culture in which boys are invariably chosen over girls as walking companions. These are the prior probabilities.
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